Dated, falsifiable forecasts about enterprise software markets. Each carries a confidence level, a leading indicator you can check yourself, and a resolution date.

Resolved forecasts stay here whether they landed or not. Publishing the misses is the point — a track record you can only see when it flatters me is not a track record.

The commit history of this site is the dated record — check it yourself. Entries are not edited after publication; corrections appear as new rows.

Open

# Made Forecast Confidence Leading indicator Resolves
1 2026-10-14 Despite Broadcom’s repricing, most Australian Commonwealth VMware contracts expiring in 2027–2028 will be renewed with VMware rather than migrated to an alternative hypervisor 65% Australian job-posting counts: Nutanix + Proxmox as a share of VMware. 11% at baseline; sustained movement above 15% weakens this call 2029-06-30

Resolved

None yet. The first resolutions fall due in 2029.

Scoring

From ten resolved forecasts onward, this page carries a calibration summary: how often calls at each confidence level actually landed.